Switzerland
Swiss national report on vulnerability to climate change in 2050
March 2007
In March 2007 the Swiss Advisory Body for Climate Change (OcCC) and ProClim-, Forum of the Swiss Academy of Sciences (SCNAT) have published a report addressing key issues of vulnerability of Switzerland to climate change in the year 2050 (“Klimaänderung und die Schweiz 2050 – Erwartete Auswirkungen auf Umwelt, Gesellschaft und Wirtschaft”; in German). The report assesses impacts of climate change on ecosystems, agriculture, water management, health, tourism, energy, buildings and infrastructure, urban areas, and insurance.
The time horizon of 2050 was chosen because it will be experienced by people living today and because climate change until that time is similar for the different emission paths. However, it has to be noted that changes beyond 2050 might be considerably higher and strongly depend on mitigation measures already taken during the years and decades to come.
The assessment of vulnerability has been based on a probabilistic climate change scenario projecting a warming of about 2ºC (95% probability range of 1-3.5ºC) in autumn, winter and spring, and nearly 3ºC (range of 1.5-5ºC) in winter, as well as a precipitation increase of about 10% (range of 0-20%) during winter months and a precipitation decrease of about 20% (range of 5-30%) in summer.
Some main impacts and vulnerabilities are listed below:
- Water supply and usage: 75% of water stored in glaciers will be lost. During dry periods there will be more competition regarding water usage. There will be enhanced potential for floods in winter and spring.
- Tourism: There will be less snow in winter at lower altitudes which affects ski tourism.
- Infrastructure: land use planning and architecture have to consider climate change at an early stage, especially concerning the increasing demand for cooling in summer months. Transport networks and buildings are at greater risk of weather related hazards. Extreme Precipitation enhances the damage risk for infrastructure, traffic routes, touristic facilities and settlements.
- Humans: More heat waves will affect health. Especially during heat waves human performance and productivity will be reduced.
Switzerland is able to adapt relatively well up to 2050. Damage and adaptation costs are unknown but will increase with greater change.
The report (in German) can be ordered (€ 20) from OcCC or ProClim, Schwarztorstr 9, CH-3007 Bern, Switzerland, phone +41 31 328 23 23, e-mail: occc@scnat.ch or downloded from www.proclim.ch.
A French version is available at www.occc.ch.